Archery hunting season starts today in Michigan.
Interestingly, the stock market also has a hunting season. As it turns out, patience pays off in both.
Table of Contents
The Big Picture
When I’m hunting, I’m trying to shoot a buck. But I’m not just gonna settle for any buck, okay?
Borderline Shooters
As buck season approached, I watched. We got some borderline shooters out there. They’re decent bucks. But do I really want to punch my tag on these guys?
My hope is that at some point a stud is gonna walk out, okay? Maybe the little guys are out there in the field, but their big brother is back in the woods. I can’t see him, but I hope he steps out.
Trading isn’t so different.
We had a couple of slow days to start the week. There were some decent plays, but it wasn’t like shooting the big buck.
It was more like…
Filling the Freezer With Meat
I shot a doe a couple of weeks ago during the early doe cull. We shoot 15 to 20 does a year to fill the freezer with meat. That’s the good stuff for eating. It’s not like getting the trophy buck, but it serves a purpose.
Compare that to trading. What if the big buck doesn’t show up? Look, not every trade needs to be a trophy buck.
When things are slow, you have choices. You can wait for the big one, not trade at all, or take small deliberate trades.
Wallet Padders and Small Gains
Small trades can be useful.
Sometimes there are trophy setups, but more often than not there are small trades. The mistake most people make is forcing trades, trying to turn a doe into a buck. Or worse, trading just for the sake of trading.
For example, what if a company reports solid earnings but there’s no volume? That’s exactly what happened with The Generation Essentials Group (NYSE: TGE) yesterday (Sept 30) in premarket.
Once there was float rotation and volume came in after the open, it turned into a pretty good spiker.
TGE 9/30/26, 5-min candles, earnings winner, Rubicon cross
We wait for all the signs, for everything to come together, okay?
Sometimes it’s best not to trade at all. At the very least, when things aren’t as busy, lower your expectations.
Trade smart and be patient. Accept that some days are slower than others.
Remember, October is exactly when you need discipline, because opportunity and volatility often increase this time of year.
October Is Stock Market Hunting Season
Here are 3 things to consider as we head into October:
- October is historically one of the most volatile months. It’s rarely loss-making for the overall market, but volatility ticks up. With volatility comes opportunity.
- Q4 consistently outperforms all other quarters. We’ll talk more about that in the coming days and weeks.
- This is an election-year run-up. During election years, the market historically rallies post-election, regardless of who wins. That said, the run-up to the election can affect the markets.
My Take
It’s your responsibility as a trader to understand seasonal shifts. It’s also imperative that you gauge what’s happening on a given day.
And no matter what, know the difference between shooting the trophy buck, filling your freezer with meat, or not taking the shot at all.
Watchlist
We already looked at TGE above, but it went on to be an EPIC winner from Oracle and was also a Rubicon cross. Take a look at what it did in the afternoon…
TGE 9/30/26, 5-min candles, potential continuation move
If TGE can break out of that channel, I like it for a secondary move. Look for breaks above $1.71 with risk at $1.55. Target is the next major resistance at $2.24.
On My Radar
- Know your numbers: Non-Farm Payrolls release tomorrow
- Private sector jobs beat estimates for September.
- Is SI the new AI?
- Anthropic IPO docs: the only risk is not investing
- Something you can still get for a dollar: Jeff Z’s Monthly Money Flows Crash Course and next Calendar Stock alert