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Save your seatFRGE ran from roughly $36 in early January to $45 by late February off Charles Schwab's $45 cash buyout, then pinned near deal price into the closeout.
A failure to hold $44.50 could see a fade toward $43.50 to $44.00 if traders start pricing in closing risk or timing slippage. Any surprise on regulatory approvals would accelerate the downside.
If FRGE holds the $44.50 area, the only upside left is a grind back to $45.00 as merger arb traders lean on the spread. Resistance at $45.00 is the wall, because that is the cash takeout price.
We don't currently have information about Forge Global Holdings Inc.'s earnings.