Feb. 24, 2025 at 12:03 PM ET6 min read

Freshpet Inc.: Stock Drop Insights

Tim BohenAvatar
Written by Tim Bohen
Reviewed by Ben Sturgill Fact-checked by Ellis Hobbs

Freshpet Inc.’s market sentiment soared with an 8% surge in stock value on Monday, as investors reacted positively to recent news of the company’s successful expansion into new markets and innovative pet food offerings. On Monday, Freshpet Inc.’s stocks have been trading up by 7.69 percent.

  • Baird identifies a potential buy in Freshpet as the recent selloff seems excessive, maintaining an Outperform rating with a $170 target.
  • Despite missing Q4 EPS estimates, Freshpet showcases significant sales growth and projects 2026 to be cash flow positive.
  • The stock dropped 11% due to Nielsen data concerns, but reassurance comes with its disruptive potential and strong market position.
  • Piper Sandler lowers Freshpet’s price target to $160 citing an overdone pullback, yet still sees long-term growth strength.
  • TD Cowen reduces Freshpet’s price target to $141 following Q4 earnings, but views the stock’s drop as an overreaction, projecting recovery in late 2025.

Candlestick Chart

Live Update At 12:03:09 EST: On Monday, February 24, 2025 Freshpet Inc. stock [NASDAQ: FRPT] is trending up by 7.69%! Discover the key drivers behind this movement as well as our expert analysis in the detailed breakdown below.

Freshpet Inc.’s Financial Snapshot

When it comes to the unpredictable world of trading, one thing is clear: staying focused and adaptable is crucial. As Tim Bohen, lead trainer with StocksToTrade says, “Time and experience have taught me that missed opportunities are part of the game. There’s always another setup around the corner.” This mindset encourages traders to remain patient, not getting bogged down by what didn’t work out but instead always being on the lookout for new opportunities in the market. Remember, the key to successful trading is knowing when to wait and when to act.

Let’s delve into Freshpet’s financial journey. The company’s fourth quarter brought mixed results, leaving investors with a bittersweet aftertaste. Earnings per share (EPS) stood at $0.36, missing consensus estimates. However, the silver lining was the substantial net sales improvement. Martin, a dog lover with a penchant for Freshpet’s quality, remarked, “I buy their products despite the ups and downs—they’re good for Bella, and that’s what counts.”

Freshpet aims to hit $1.8B in revenue by 2027, and its near-term predictions show a promising rise to around $1.18B-$1.21B for FY25. Currently, their adjusted EBITDA hovers at $210M, with capital expenditures pegged at $250M. In a casual office chat overheard, “Freshpet’s borrow-to-own strategy won’t bite us if their capex plans earn them a bigger bowl of growth.”

Looking at the cash flow, operating cash reached $56.1M, despite investing activities seeing an outflow of $34.03M. Even as net income from continuous operations was $11.9M, the net suite will need constant grooming. The debt-to-equity ratio is a solid 0.42, showing they carry less financial fur than some peers. Their price-to-earnings ratio, running at 112.67, keeps the stock on the premium shelf, suggesting investors still see a gourmet future.

Articles Influencing Stock Movement

Baird’s Freshpet Revelation

Baird surfaces as a cheerleader for Freshpet, spotting a buying window after this market whimsy-driven dip. With faith intact, they nudge the target back to $157. This takes two views: is the dip a buying gala or better left alone in the market doghouse? Those optimistic about Freshpet might see it as a treat, but the prudent might question if bones are buried.

Q4 Earnings: A Bumpy Run

The ride through Q4 was nothing short of bumpy. Net sales rose significantly, a feat that calls for applause. However, EPS failed to impress, reminiscent of a canine missing a routine treat. But with free cash flow expected by 2026 under a tree of planned efficiencies, Freshpet is barking up the right fiscal corridors.

More Breaking News

Nielsen Data Concerns

Nielsen data injected a bit of worry into Freshpet’s faithful. An 11% fall ensued as investors imbibed tracking concern. And yet, TD Cowen reiterated the potential of Freshpet, situating it well within the realms of sector innovation and competitive might. In such emerging market scuffles, holding the line seems prudent. Freshpet’s poised bounce-back narrative may prove prophetic in hindsight.

Piper Sandler’s Optimism

Piper Sandler has played the advocate for Freshpet, slicing the target from $180 to $160. Their loyalty met the test at this crossroads, reaffirming Freshpet as a compelling growth story. An overdone sell-off or a market correction to Destination Realism? Subscribers will watch each stock tick, whispering around the breakroom about Piper’s veracity.

TD Cowen’s Revised Outlook

Closing reports indicate TD Cowen’s choice to cut Freshpet’s price target echoes earlier sentiments—flesh in terms to $141 from $174. Speculative chatter zones in on the EPS miss, but the chatter gradually shifts towards looking ahead to expanded distribution and advertising in late 2025. This anticipates brighter stock tales if the industry holds firm.

What Lies Ahead for Freshpet

In such an evolving fiscal garden, seasoned advice stems from evaluating innovation, long-term growth, and calculated risk. Thus, gauging Freshpet’s next step remains an exciting arena dynamic. Continued strength in gross margins and operational improvement offer clues. With the firm investing $25M more, their bet is on momentum slowdown being nothing but temporary.

As Tim Bohen, lead trainer with StocksToTrade says, “For me, trading is more about managing risk than finding the next big mover.” The market now eyes how the stories unfold—are they mere notes in this canine opera or full sections promising an encore? Pet patrons and trading fans can only peruse and poise, mulling toys on the shelf. Only time can tame the mystery of Freshpet’s path. But one mantra stays: trade the waves, invest the tide.

This is stock news, not investment advice. StocksToTrade News delivers real-time stock market updates tailored to highlight the key catalysts driving short-term price movements. Our coverage is designed for active traders and investors who thrive in fast-moving markets, with a focus on volatile sectors like penny stocks, AI stocks, Robinhood stocks and other momentum plays. From earnings reports and FDA approvals to mergers, new contracts, and unusual trading volume, we break down the events that can spark significant price action.

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