Have you ever noticed how the market messes with your head?
One minute you’re doing everything right, trading with a plan, managing risk…
And the next, you’re kicking yourself because you missed out on a move.
Don’t ever miss out on a big Monday move again. If you aren’t using my Setup, you need to start ASAP!
Here’s how it works…
Every Monday, the market kicks back into gear after its weekend nap… And that reset creates a unique opportunity!
As the first session of the week gets started, there’s a specific pattern we look for, one that appears again and again with uncanny consistency.
And it has delivered some insane wins!
Yesterday’s was incredible…
Eightco Holdings ran up 340%* (!) after dropping news that a big industry titan was joining its board of directors.
These are the kinds of morning spikes we hunt for every Monday!
Now I want to teach you how to spot them for yourself!
Watch the video below for the full trade breakdown and strategy tutorial for my Monday Setup.
The frustration that you feel when you’ve missed major price action? That voice telling you you should’ve held longer, or you should’ve ignored your stop?
That’s not just emotion… It’s a hidden bomb that can blow up your entire trading strategy..
Picture this…
Penny stock XYZ starts running higher right out of the gate. It’s moving fast, and your first instinct is to jump in.
You don’t have a setup. You don’t have a thesis. You buy simply because the stock is moving up…
At least you’re disciplined enough to set a stop loss ahead of time.
Sure enough, XYZ climbs a bit, pulls back, and … bam! You hit your stop. You’re out.
And then what happens?
The stock reverses and takes off without you.
Now you’re frustrated. Instead of thinking about the small, controlled loss you just took, you’re obsessing over the gain you “should have” had.
I hear this complaint all the time during my Pre-Market Prep sessions.
The reality is, your trade failed because you didn’t wait for a high-probability setup, and you chased movement, not strategy. XYZ could just as easily have tanked like any other junk penny stock.
Your disappointment is based on selection bias, pure and simple.
Table of Contents
What Is Selection Bias?
Selection bias happens when you cherry-pick data and ignore the bigger picture.
- You focus on the home runs and forget the strikeouts.
- You remember the setups that worked and ignore the ones that blew up.
- You convince yourself your strategy is flawless when really, you’re only looking at your past winners.
The market doesn’t care about your selective memory.
When you only study the exceptions, you build false confidence, and false confidence leads to bad decisions.
How Selection Bias Messes With Your Strategy
As traders, we love finding patterns. But if you only look at the trades that confirm your theory, you’ll trick yourself into believing you’ve found the secret formula.
Say you backtest a breakout strategy and only pay attention to the stocks that ran big. That’ll make that approach look incredible…
But what about the hundreds of similar breakouts that fizzled?
Ignoring those failures gives you a fantasy version of reality. And fantasies don’t survive in the markets…
And especially not in penny stocks, where unpredictability is the rule, not the exception.
As for things that are predictable, we know that on Wednesday, September 17th, just after 2 p.m. ET, President Trump might roll out his boldest economic plan yet.
That’s why my friend and expert trader, Tim Sykes and $20M trader Jack Kellogg are going live this Wednesday, September 10th, at 8 PM ET with an urgent live briefing.
Jack is calling Trump’s next move “America’s Freedom Window,” and he thinks it could open up a trading opportunity unlike anything people have seen.
During this special event, he’ll be giving away what he considers the most valuable FREE trading idea of his entire $20M career.
Honestly, if you skip this FREE live event, you’ll regret it.
Spots are going fast, so register for America’s Freedom Window Summit ASAP.
How to Avoid Selection Bias
Here’s how you keep this trap from wrecking your strategy:
Study the full dataset: Look at every result of the setup, both when it worked out and when it didn’t.
Backtest objectively: Run your system across all market conditions. Look for consistency, not just outliers.
Keep a journal: Track every trade… The ugly ones often teach the best lessons.
Think about risk first: Before you enter, ask, “What if this trade fails?” If you can’t answer that, you should stay away from it.
Always use a stop loss: Protect your account from the trades that aren’t winners.
A Tool That Helps
If you’re using our algorithmic Oracle system, you’re already ahead of the game. Oracle gives you both an entry and a stop-loss level.
If the entry never hits, you move on. Simple. Clean. No chasing.
You can see Oracle in action during one of our FREE live webinars.
My Final Thoughts…
If you let selection bias run your trading, you’re chasing illusions…
You’ll believe your strategy is bulletproof and assume the market will always reward you.
But the market doesn’t play favorites.
The best traders study everything, wins and losses. They face reality, recognize their blind spots, and adapt.
Trading isn’t about perfection. It’s about discipline, risk management, and constant learning.
Have a great day, everyone. See you back here tomorrow.
Tim Bohen
Lead Trainer, StocksToTrade
P.S.
Great, you have a trade plan. What happens when it fails?
If you’re a long-term trader, you need these basics to master your strategy.
The September market is on fire with potential opportunities. Does your trade check all the boxes?